The rupiah has weakened, nearing Rp17,000 per US dollar. Prasasti Center for Policy Studies (Prasasti) assesses that this depreciation is influenced by the availability of dollars in the market as well as investor expectations regarding the exchange rate, requiring serious attention from monetary authorities.

Policy and Program Director of Prasasti Center for Policy Studies (Prasasti), Piter Abdullah, explained that the rupiah’s movement against the dollar is largely driven by dollar supply itself. “The dollar is like a commodity. When supply is abundant, the price is low; when supply is scarce, the price rises. When dollar supply is low, its price automatically increases. As a result, the rupiah automatically depreciates,” Piter said.

Piter emphasized that dollar availability is affected not only by domestic conditions but also by global expectations. When holders of dollars believe that the dollar will continue to strengthen, they tend to hold on to their dollars. “The more dollars are held back, the scarcer they become in the market, and the more pressure there is on the rupiah,” he explained.

In addition to global factors, domestic conditions also influence rupiah depreciation. Uncertainty at the domestic level, including economic dynamics and policies, drives negative expectations toward the rupiah. This situation causes exporters and dollar holders to retain their currency, keeping dollar supply limited.

To relieve pressure on the rupiah, Piter stressed that the role of Bank Indonesia (BI) as the monetary authority is crucial. BI’s interventions in the foreign exchange market are essential for stabilizing investor expectations and ensuring dollar availability.

According to Piter, BI’s stabilization measures not only help maintain the exchange rate but also influence the behavior of dollar holders. “As long as negative expectations remain high, dollars will continue to be scarce because holders are unwilling to sell. BI intervention is necessary to manage expectations,” he said.

Prasasti emphasizes that a combination of managing dollar supply and controlling market expectations is key to maintaining rupiah stability. With the right mechanisms, pressure on the rupiah can be minimized, keeping the exchange rate at a healthy level and supporting overall economic stability.

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Prasasti Center for Policy Studies Ungkap Akar Pelemahan Rupiah

Nilai tukar rupiah melemah hingga nyaris menembus Rp17.000 per dolar. Prasasti Center for Policy Studies (Prasasti) menilai pelemahan ini dipengaruhi oleh ketersediaan dolar di pasar serta ekspektasi investor terhadap nilai tukar. Hal tersebut membutuhkan perhatian serius dari otoritas moneter.

Policy and Program Director Prasasti Center for Policy Studies (Prasasti), Piter Abdullah, menjelaskan bahwa pergerakan rupiah terhadap dolar dipengaruhi oleh suplai dolar itu sendiri. “Dolar itu seperti komoditas. Kalau barangnya banyak harganya murah, kalau barangnya sedikit harganya mahal. Ketika suplai dolar rendah, harganya otomatis meningkat. Dampaknya, rupiah otomatis terdepresiasi,” ujar Piter.

Piter menekankan bahwa ketersediaan dolar tidak hanya dipengaruhi kondisi domestik, tetapi juga ekspektasi global. Ketika pemegang dolar yakin nilai dolar akan terus menguat, mereka cenderung menahan dolarnya. “Semakin banyak yang menahan dolar, semakin langka dolar di pasar dan rupiah semakin tertekan,” jelasnya.

Selain faktor global, kondisi dalam negeri juga mempengaruhi pelemahan rupiah. Ketidakpastian di tingkat domestik, termasuk dinamika ekonomi dan kebijakan mendorong ekspektasi negatif terhadap rupiah. Situasi ini membuat eksportir dan pemilik dolar menahan mata uangnya, sehingga suplai dolar tetap terbatas.

Untuk menahan tekanan terhadap rupiah, Piter menegaskan peran Bank Indonesia (BI) sebagai otoritas moneter sangat krusial. Intervensi BI melalui pasar valuta asing menjadi langkah penting untuk menstabilkan ekspektasi investor dan menjaga ketersediaan dolar di pasar.

Langkah-langkah stabilisasi BI, menurut Piter, tidak hanya menjaga nilai tukar tetapi juga mempengaruhi perilaku pemegang dolar. “Selama ekspektasi negatif masih tinggi, dolar akan terus langka karena pemegangnya tidak mau melepasnya. Intervensi BI diperlukan agar ekspektasi bisa terkendali,” katanya.

Prasasti menekankan bahwa kombinasi pengelolaan suplai dolar dan pengendalian ekspektasi pasar menjadi kunci untuk menjaga stabilitas rupiah. Dengan mekanisme yang tepat, tekanan terhadap rupiah dapat diminimalkan, sehingga nilai tukar tetap berada pada level yang sehat dan mendukung stabilitas ekonomi secara keseluruhan.